Friday, 24 June 2016

On Gurus and One-day Wonder Stocks

Yesterday, many traders and gurus became Technical Analysis (TA) geniuses again because of what happened to SBS. If you didn't know, SBS gained 43% yesterday after reporting a 58.73% increase in income.

And so, up to this morning, prior to the market opening, many of them are praising and hyping their recommendation. I bet some newbies fell and began following these guys, even if it meant paying a premium, because of their so-called reco.

Illustration by Marc Boutavant 

Why I'm not impressed with their reco? Obviously, SBS was trading on a range. And if you're simply going to follow the target price (TP) based on the price range, it would never hit 43%. So why praise your "system" if you know it was just chamba? I'm not even sure if the guru executed his trade reco. Good thing that in today's trading session, SBS somehow returned to earth with a 14.4% loss. Maybe this will bring the gurus' feet back to the ground too. I just don't know how they'll explain it to their followers who bought at the top (it's none of my business anyway). :P

So what's the point of this post? In the stock market, some stocks can be "one-hit wonder", or make that "one-day wonder". Sometimes, you'll just be surprised that the stock you're holding is suddenly up by 50%, and sometimes, even spills to the next day, giving you at least 100% profit. The move can be due to high earnings report, backdoor rumor, or an exploration discovery, which has nothing to do with the recent price chart. I've experienced this several times already, but I know I was just lucky because I was holding it at the right time. That's why, since 2012, I try to allot a small portion of my portfolio for speculative stock. I started with PXP (success), MIH (success), SGI (success), SUN (fail), and now, I'm holding ION. I'll give ION up to this year to move, otherwise, I'll move on without it.

Anyway, it's a good day for the Philippine Stock Market today. My portfolio is happy too, thanks to MEG, X, and ION. Hoping the same for you. :)

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